Should I Wait Until Next Year to Buy? Or Buy Now?

February 23, 2018

Some Highlights:
  • The Cost of Waiting to Buy is defined as the additional funds it would take to buy a home if prices & interest rates were to increase over a period of time.

  • Freddie Mac predicts interest rates to rise to 5.1% by 2019.

  • CoreLogic predicts home prices to appreciate by 4.3% over the next 12 months.

  • If you are ready and willing to buy your dream home, find out if you are able to!

 

Calm Down! The Real Estate Market is NOT Falling Apart.

There has been tremendous volatility in certain markets over the last few weeks (for example, the stock and currency markets). When this happens, some tend to lump all of their investments together and create an almost ‘Armageddon’ scenario where everything loses value quickly and dramatically. Real estate is an investment that can get caught up in this hysteria. Does the concern about the current housing market have merit?

Financial advisors have been warning us for months that the stock market was ripe for a “correction.”

Experts have been questioning the value of alternative currencies for over a year.

In contrast, here are the opinions of three major players in the residential housing market:

 
Ralph DeFranco, Chief Economist, Arch Capital Services Inc.

“It’s premature to worry about a housing bubble. The typical warning signs – excessive debt levels, poor quality loans, exponentially increasing home prices, rising vacancy rates and/or poor affordability compared to the past, and a high number of internet searches on house flipping – are not present.”

 
Liu-Down, Genworth Chief Economist

“My thoughts on many recent discussions of ‘housing bubble’ – the bar for a housing bubble is higher than just prices being above some fundamental value. There must be widespread behavior change as well such as higher levels of fraud and speculation.”

 
Fitch Report

“US home prices are on track for a 5% nominal gain for the 4th consecutive year, returning national prices to their highest level since 2007. The growth has been driven by historically low mortgage rates and unemployment plus solid population and personal income growth rates…a meaningful correction should only be triggered by an unexpected economic shock.”

 

2018 PREDICTIONS:

 

The median home value in Fresno is $225,900. Fresno home values have gone up 10.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.7% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Fresno is $154, which is lower than theFresno Metro average of $158. The median price of homes currently listed in Fresno is $268,900 while the median price of homes that sold is $242,400. The median rent price in Fresno is $1,295, which is lower than the Fresno Metro median of $1,350.

 

Foreclosures will be a factor impacting home values in the next several years. In Fresno 2.3 homes are foreclosed (per 10,000). This is greater than the Fresno Metro value of 2.2 and also greater than the national value of 1.6

Mortgage delinquency is the first step in the foreclosure process. This is when a homeowner fails to make a mortgage payment. The percent of delinquent mortgages in Fresno is 1.4%, which is lower than the national value of 1.6%. With U.S. home values having fallen by more than 20% nationally from their peak in 2007 until their trough in late 2011, many homeowners are now underwater on their mortgages, meaning they owe more than their home is worth. The percent of Fresno homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 12.8%, which is higher than Fresno Metro at 12.1%.

 

 

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